Friday, January 7, 2011

RWD.L - ROBERT WISEMAN DAIRIES - a valuation

Projections for RWD don't look good. I'd thought I run a valuation over RWD like I did for Greggs. Using actual data for the decade to end 2010, I obtain:
growth rate: 11.6%
R^2: 91%

If I include analyst forecasts into the mix, (which show 2011 and 2012 declines in profits), I obtain:
growth rate: 8.5%
R^2: 77%

Suppose I use the more pessimistic figure of 8.5%. RWD currently has a yield of 5.2%. Adding the two gives an expected return of 13.7%. That's pretty good.

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