Friday, November 25, 2011


Index relegation

Saw this yesterday; All the following leave the FTSE250 in a week or so.

Unite Group
Premier Foods
Thomas Cook Group

Not sure if the trackers will have already dumped them.


I picked up a few interesting tweets a couple of days ago. I shall probably return to them in 6 months time.

23-Nov-2011 paulypilot Paul Scott
IND on sale at 205p - mkt cap £15m, £5m+ in net cash, plus trading well again (recent buoyant Tr Stat). Probably best value its ever been

24-Nov-2011 MrContrarian Mr Contrarian
Sold Thomas Cook Group (£TCG) at 14p for a 75% loss. Peel Hunt recon up to £700m recap needed, in which case equity of £122m @14p worthless.

24-Nov-2011 paulcurtis123 PAUL CURTIS
Just spoken to oil company focused Hedge Fund. Redemptions forcing sale of anything with no immediate upside. Value irrelevant.

24-Nov-2011 MrContrarian Mr Contrarian
Hampson (£HAMP) FD buys 100k at 2.96p. That's only £3k worth - a token buy. He now holds 125k. Not impressed by that. I bought at 4.9p.

Recessionary times evidence

I was going to post this as part of my growth versus value investing post. I knew there were comments by Kelpie Capital, but I just couldn't find them. Anyway, I'm going to give some sketch notes on his blog post.

Recession expected in 2011Q4 ot 2012Q1, likely to be global.
  • business outlook indicator is down, which is often a leading indicator
  • Hussman's composite of stats suggest bad outlook
  • Achuthan's broad range of stats indicates recession. His track record is unblemished.
  • emerging markets will not save us
  • we are at peak profit margins, so contraction is likely
  • corporate profits are at the highest ratio to GDP in history

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