It is usually common to see the non-cyclicals play catchup as a bull market matures. This hasn't happened yet, but the first interest rate rises often trigger a re-rating upwards of non-cyclials. We may be just a few months away from the start of a slow-but-steady rate-hiking. When non-cyclicals start to outpace the cyclials over a one-year period, then we may be close to the end of the bull. The last cyclical bull lasted from 2002/3 to 2006/7; four years or so. This bull may well last a similar amount of time, so should run well into 2012. The last stockmarket crash generated so much fear that we're unlikely to see such a panic again for many years. The "wall of worry" - which bull markets are said to climb - is still quite strong.
Thursday, March 3, 2011
The Bull Market Turns Two
In this article on TMF, a poster added the comment: