AV.L Valuation

I did my own valuation of Aviva on a variety of bases:

[1] Current Price: 389.6

On a PER basis:
[2] EPS10: 54.55 (median EPS based on last 10 years)
[3] PE10: 9.15 (again, last 10 years median PER)
[4] Expected price [2]*[3]: 505p
[5] Expected return [4]/[1]: 30%

On a BV basis:
[6] PBV10: 1.53
[7] Current: 0.99
[8] Expected return [6]*[7]: 50%
[9] Expected price [8]/[1]: 584p

On yield basis:
[10] YLD10: 4.86%
[11] Current yield: 6.52%
[12] Expected return: 31%, SP 505p

Stephen Bland also did an exit price here : The index is presently on a forecast 2011 yield of around 3.3%, so that an exit yield for Aviva would be a forecast 4.3% on this reckoning. Taking the anticipated divi of 27.2p that makes a dump price of 633p which is 62% above today's figure of 390p.

So the returns are calculated as 30%, 50%, 30%, 62%; for an average of 43%, giving it a target price of 557p. Pretty good.